Enlarge / Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber defied expectations to deliver a document that explicitly calls for limits on fossil fuel use. (credit: Fadel Dawod )

On Wednesday, the UN's COP28 meeting wrapped up with a major success: Despite a bruising fight with OPEC nations , the closing agreement included a call for a transition away from fossil fuels. There's still plenty here for various parties to dislike, but this is the first agreement that makes the implications of the Paris Treaty explicit: We can't limit climate change and continue to burn fossil fuels at anything close to the rate we currently do.

Beyond that, however, the report has something to disappoint everyone. It catalogs strong signs of incremental progress toward the Paris goals while acknowledging we're running out of time for further increments. And the steps it calls for will likely keep changes on a similar trajectory.

Taking stock

The new document is called a "Global Stocktake" in reference to checking the world's progress toward the goals of the Paris Agreement: limit climate change to 2° C above preindustrial temperatures and try to keep it to 1.5° C. That agreement called for nations to make pledges to limit greenhouse gas emissions; initial pledges were insufficient, but regular meetings of the Conference of the Parties (COP) would allow the pledges to be updated, raising their aggressiveness until the world is on a trajectory toward meeting its goals.

Enlarge / Saudi Arabia's presence at COP28 has reportedly been used to limit progress on fossil fuel cutbacks. (credit: Sean Gallup / Getty Images )

Oil-producing countries are apparently succeeding in their attempts to eliminate language from an international climate agreement that calls for countries to phase out the use of fossil fuels. Draft forms of the agreement had included text that called upon the countries that are part of the Paris Agreement to work toward "an orderly and just phase out of fossil fuels." Reports now indicate that this text has gone missing from the latest versions of the draft.

The agreement is being negotiated at the United Nations' COP28 climate change conference , taking place in the United Arab Emirates. The COP, or Conference of the Parties, meetings are annual events that attempt to bring together UN members to discuss ways to deal with climate change. They were central to the negotiations that brought about the Paris Agreement, which calls for participants to develop plans that should bring the world to net-zero emissions by the middle of the century.

Initial plans submitted by countries would lower the world's greenhouse gas emissions, but not by nearly enough to reach net zero. However, the agreement included mechanisms by which countries would continue to evaluate their progress and submit more stringent goals. So, additional COP meetings have included what's termed a "stocktake" to evaluate where countries stand, and statements are issued to encourage and direct future actions.

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United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres had just returned from a visit to flooded Pakistan when he stepped before the UN General Assembly to give a speech on Tuesday. Poverty-stricken regions experiencing the most severe climate change impacts like Pakistan were front-of-mind when he declared , “Today, I am calling on all developed economies to tax the windfall profits of fossil fuel companies.”

Guterres made it clear how taxing fossil fuel companies could help struggling countries recover, recommending that developed economies convert rocketing oil and gas industry profits into funds to help struggling nations recover. By redirecting funds “to countries suffering loss and damage caused by the climate crisis and to people struggling with rising food and energy prices,” he suggests “polluters must pay” for the damage that reports have shown fossil fuel companies are largely responsible for.

The Guardian called Guterres’ appeal his “most urgent, and bleakest, speech to date.” However, Guterres did suggest that “by acting as one, we can nurture fragile shoots of hope” and overcome “loss and damage from disasters” and reverse a “once-in-a-generation global cost-of-living crisis" that he said is "unfolding" and "turbocharged by the war in Ukraine.”