Enlarge (credit: Portra / Getty Images )

On Tuesday, the Pew Research Center released the latest iteration of its surveys of Americans' views of science and scientists. On the most basic level, they see a drop in the public's opinion of scientists since the height of the pandemic in 2020. But, as always, the situation is more complex when the numbers are examined closely.

In general, there was a drop in trust of almost every occupation during that time period, and in the case of scientists, this largely represents a return to pre-pandemic popularity. The exception is that nearly everyone is less likely to say that scientists should get involved in policy decisions, with Republicans feeling especially strong in this regard.

The good news

The Pew surveys are large, with more than 10,000 participants, and have been done for long enough (six years for some questions) that trends should be apparent in the data. And the results have generally been positive for scientists: Science as a whole is widely supported, and scientists are one of the most highly respected groups in the US.

Enlarge / If you live in the West, it's difficult to maintain denial about fires and drought. (credit: Josh Edelson | AFP | Getty Images )

There are many dramatic contrasts between the Biden administration and its immediate predecessor, and climate policy is high on the list. After four years of promises to restore coal use and claims that windmills caused cancer, we have an administration that promises to cut emissions in half by the end of the decade.

What does the US public think of this change? The Pew Research Center has been tracking attitudes on climate issues for the past several years, and it has new polling data from early May. The polling shows a general weakening of support for climate policies, with most of the change coming from Republicans. But it also shows that the two parties may not even inhabit the same reality, as they largely disagree about whether the weather has changed.

Mind the gap

Pew's data is based on a survey of over 10,000 US residents, and it was performed in early May (that's before the most recent surge in gasoline prices, which may be relevant for some questions). In a number of cases, the same questions have been asked for several years running, so we have some data on how attitudes have changed over the transition from the Trump administration to the Biden administration.

Enlarge / Reading science news can get people to accept climate science, but the effect is brief. (credit: Getty Images )

For decades, the scientific community has been nearly unanimous: Climate change is real, it's our doing, and its consequences are likely to be severe. Yet even as it gets more difficult to avoid some of its effects, poll after poll shows that the public hasn't gotten the message. There's very little recognition of how strong the scientific consensus is, and there is a lot of uncertainty about whether it's our doing—and none of the polling numbers seem to shift very quickly.

Over these same decades, there have been plenty of studies looking at why this might be. Many of them have found ways to shift the opinions of study subjects—methods that have undoubtedly been adopted by communications professionals. Yet the poll numbers have remained stubborn. Misinformation campaigns and political polarization have both been blamed, but the evidence for these factors making a difference is far from clear.

A new study offers an additional hint as to why. While polarization and misinformation both play roles in how the public interprets climate science, the biggest problem may be that the public has a very short memory, and anything people learn about climate science tends to be forgotten by a week later.