Rob Ford was part of the BBC team analysing the local election results as they poured in over the past 48 hours. Here he tells how a dramatic set of results for the government unfolded

The nervous wait for the first result was longer than usual, as counting centres wrestled with multiple ballots for councils, mayors and police and crime commissioners. It was well past midnight on Friday morning when the first ward flashed up, coming as always from Sunderland, which prides itself on its rapid vote counting. A big Tory to Labour swing in Sunderland’s Copt Hill.

As we moved into the small hours of the morning, the flow of data rose from a trickle to a torrent, and an overall picture began to form. Voters clearly wanted the Conservatives out. Who they wanted instead was less clear.

Britain has turned out in force to vote for change. Whenever the Tories go to the country, we will be ready to provide it

Rishi Sunak might have been too scared to put his name on the ballot this week, but voters sent him a clear message in the local elections anyway. Across the country, people turned out to vote for change – from the manufacturing heartlands of Derby to industrial Redditch and Thurrock in Essex. In Aldershot, home of the British army, Labour won Rushmoor borough council, ending 24 years of Tory rule. Ten more police and crime commissioners – which, as a former chief prosecutor, makes me incredibly proud. And in York and North Yorkshire, the first Labour mayor, in the prime minister’s back garden.

Victories in traditional Tory territory across the country are important to me. It’s not just about the numbers, though of course they matter: it’s the choice of the electorate to turn their back on 14 years of decline and division, and embrace national renewal with Labour.

After this week’s terrible results for his party, the only honourable thing to do is let voters decide his fate

Rishi Sunak’s government began last week by triumphantly announcing that a man whose asylum claim had been rejected had volunteered to take up to £3,000 cash in exchange for agreeing to take a commercial flight to Rwanda – plus the provision of housing, food and healthcare there for five years at a cost of £150,000 to the taxpayer . Sunak bookended it with some of the worst-ever English local election results for the Conservatives, and the shock loss of the West Midlands mayoralty to the Labour party.

A direct line can be traced from this preposterous claim of success to electoral disaster. During 14 years in government, the Conservatives have eroded the welfare safety net, sabotaged the quality of public services through underfunding and neglect, and imposed a huge economic hit in the form of a hard Brexit. Child poverty has gone up , the NHS is blighted by record waiting lists and understaffing and social care services for the vulnerable have been adversely affected.

Local election results in England justify the decision to focus on Conservative areas, claim party strategists

The Liberal Democrats are increasingly confident that they will claim more than one Tory “big beast” at the coming general election, pointing to local election results putting them ahead in a series of true blue constituencies.

Ed Davey’s party has been criticised for failing to improve its polling performance in recent months, while its 17% projected vote share from last week’s local elections was down slightly on last year.

Victory for the Tees Valley mayor should show the way for the Tories to refind their election mojo

Rishi Sunak will have been relieved when Ben Houchen was declared the winner in the Tees Valley mayoral election, but he can’t disguise the fact that these were very bad election results.

Council elections are difficult to interpret – there are a host of local factors at play. The best thing to look at is what is known as national equivalent vote share. The BBC’s estimate at the time of writing is that Labour got 34% and the Conservatives 25%.

Devastating defeats give Tory MPs more reasons to fear what will befall them when the country delivers its verdict

The mayoral elections demonstrated that there is a way to win for a Conservative. This is to make out that you have nothing to do with the Tories.

Of the metro mayorships that were up for grabs, just one has been bagged for the Conservatives. The re-election of Ben Houchen in Tees Valley is being used as a human shield by Rishi Sunak to fend off any attempt to depose him from Downing Street. He’s relying on this sole glimmer of cheer for his party to convince it that a disastrous general election defeat is not inevitable and to blunt the daggers of those in his own party who want him gone.

Labour incumbent beat Tory candidate Susan Hall, despite inaccurate claims by ‘excited Tories’ that she could win

• UK politics – latest updates

Sadiq Khan has been elected mayor of London, winning a historic third term in a dramatic contest.

Khan was declared the winner over the Conservative candidate, Susan Hall, on Saturday afternoon.

Unnamed source said Andy Street was likely to win mayoral vote thanks to ‘Middle East not West Midlands’

• Local and mayoral election results – live updates

Labour has condemned a “racist” comment provided by an unnamed party source to the BBC after it lost support in heavily Muslim areas.

The source told the BBC they believed the West Midlands mayor, Andy Street, was on course to win as a result of the “Middle East not West Midlands” and called Hamas the “real villains”.

The results of mayoral elections in Greater Manchester, London and the West Midlands are among those expected on Saturday

Boris Johnson has thanked three villagers who turned him away from a polling station on Thursday for attempting to vote without a valid ID.

Writing for the Daily Mail, Johnson said he attempted to use a copy of Prospect magazine as a form of identification, but was turned away by local electorate officials.
Mr Johnson wrote:

I want to pay a particular tribute to the three villagers who on Thursday rightly turned me away when I appeared in the polling station with nothing to prove my identity except the sleeve of my copy of Prospect magazine, on which my name and address had been printed.

I showed it to them and they looked very dubious... within minutes I was back with my driving licence and voted Tory.

The Labour strategy was to do better in parts of the country they had lost since 2016: leave areas, more rural areas, more Tory areas, whiter areas. They have done better across the board in all those areas.

They also have seen trouble brewing up on their left flank. There has been a substantial loss of support in heavily Muslim areas and they are going backwards a bit in progressive areas and areas with students. It is progress at a price.